2022 Progress toward the SDGs, Goal # 2 Zero Hunger

 

The world is on the verge of a global food crisis, with a rising number of people experiencing hunger and food insecurity even before the COVID-19 pandemic. Global food supply systems have been partially undermined by a cascading combination of growing conflicts, climate-related shocks and widening inequalities. As a result, as many as 828 million people may have suffered from hunger in 2021. The outbreak of war in Ukraine poses an additional threat to food insecurity, with the potential to provoke a surge in levels of hunger and malnutrition, especially among the poorest and most vulnerable. With this global crisis looming, it is more urgent than ever to address its root causes. The international community must act now to avert a crippling food emergency and the social, economic and political upheaval that could follow.

Conflict, COVID-19, climate change and growing inequalities are converging to undermine food security worldwide

Climate variability and extremes, conflict, economic shocks and growing inequalities are keeping the world off track in achieving zero hunger by 2030. Since 2014, the number of people going hungry and suffering from food insecurity has been on the rise. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated an already deteriorating situation, with about 150 million more people facing hunger in 2021 than in 2019. In other words, an estimated 1 in 10 people worldwide are suffering from hunger. In addition, nearly 1 in 3 (a staggering 2.3 billion people) were moderately or severely food insecure in 2021, meaning they lacked regular access to adequate food. This represents an increase of almost 350 million people since the beginning of the pandemic. The most worrisome increases were seen in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by Central and Southern Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The unfolding crisis in Ukraine is yet another threat to food security. Ukraine and the Russian Federation are large producers and exporters of key food commodities, fertilizer, minerals and energy. Together they are considered the world’s breadbasket, supplying 30 per cent and 20 per cent of global wheat and maize exports, respectively, as well as 80 per cent of global exports of sunflower seed products. At least 50 countries import 30 per cent or more of their wheat from these two countries, with many African and LDCs importing more than 50 per cent. Ukraine and the Russian Federation are also leading exporters of fertilizers.

The conflict has caused a steep and sudden reduction in exports of grain, sunflower seeds and fertilizers. As a result, import-dependent countries are vulnerable to rising food costs and supply chain disruptions. Joint, coordinated activities and policy solutions are urgently needed to avert food shortages for the world’s poorest people and to reduce the impact of the conflict, as well as lingering consequences of the pandemic, on global food insecurity.

The low labour productivity of small-scale food producers remains troubling

Small-scale farmers are the backbone of agriculture. Yet despite their importance in combating hunger, small-scale food producers are often among the most vulnerable groups in rural areas and within the agro-food system.

In low- and middle-income countries, the labour productivity of small farmers is less than $15 a day (constant 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP)), according to the latest available figures for 42 countries. The income of these small-scale producers continues to lag behind those of their larger-scale counterparts, with more pronounced differences in higher-income countries. In most countries with available data, the average annual income from agriculture of small-scale farmers is under $2,000 (constant 2011 PPP). This is less than half that of large-scale producers, in three quarters of countries for which data are available. Small-scale farmers who are women are further disadvantaged. Although the productivity of food production units headed by men and women is similar, the average annual income of units headed by women is between 50 per cent and 70 per cent that of men, in half the countries with available data.

Already slow progress on child malnutrition has likely been set back further by the pandemic and growing food insecurity

Good nutrition sets children on a path to survive and thrive. The full impact of the pandemic on child nutrition may take years to manifest. However, a likely scenario is that COVID-19, together with soaring food prices, are exacerbating all forms of malnutrition due to a loss of household income, the lack of available and affordable nutritious food, reduced physical activity and disruptions in essential nutrition services.

In 2020, the latest year for which data are available, 22.0 per cent of children under age 5 worldwide (149.2 million) suffered from stunting (low height for age).1 This is a decline from 24.4 per cent in 2015. Subsequent years have seen continued constraints in accessing nutritious food and essential nutrition services due to the pandemic. To achieve the target of a 50 per cent reduction in the number of stunted children by 2030, the annual rate of decline must double (to 3.9 per cent per year) from its current annual reduction rate of 2.1 per cent per year.

Childhood wasting and overweight are both forms of malnutrition and can coexist in a population. In 2020, wasting (low weight for height) and overweight were found in 6.7 per cent of children under 5 (45.4 million) and 5.7 per cent of children under 5 (38.9 million), respectively. Wasting is a condition that can be brought on rapidly as a result of conflict, pandemics and climate events. Related shocks in food, fuel and fertilizer prices stemming from the war in Ukraine could tip the balance even further, destroying access to healthy diets. Childhood overweight may also be on the rise in some countries where unhealthy food replaced fresh, nutritious food, and movement restrictions curtailed opportunities for physical activity for long periods of time.

Such shocks, which have been occurring since 2020, will reverse progress made to date without additional interventions. An intensification of efforts is urgently required to reduce malnutrition and address the growing threats to nutrition security.

The proportion of countries affected by high food prices increased sharply in 2020

The share of countries affected by high food prices, which had been relatively stable since 2016, has risen sharply, climbing from 16 per cent in 2019 to 47 per cent in 2020. This shift mainly reflects trends in international markets. International prices of food items soared in the second half of 2020, more than offsetting declines in the first five months of the year. The price rises were partly due to an increase in international demand for cereals, vegetable oils, sugar and dairy products as restrictive COVID-19-related measures eased. In domestic markets, increasing freight and agricultural input costs, as well as logistical bottlenecks and market uncertainties, put increased pressure on food prices.

Prior to the Ukraine crisis, international food prices were already high, owing to market conditions, high energy and fertilizer prices, and other factors. In March 2022, global food prices were almost 30 per cent higher than at the same time last year, reaching an all-time high, though prices eased somewhat in the subsequent two months. Soaring food prices threaten to exacerbate global food insecurity.

Database is available at https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/.

2022 Progress toward the SDGs, Goal # 1 No Poverty

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has put steady progress in poverty reduction over the past 25 years into reverse, with the number of people in extreme poverty increasing for the first time in a generation. Now, rising inflation and the impacts of the war in Ukraine may derail progress further. The combined crises could lead to an additional 75 million to 95 million people living in extreme poverty in 2022, compared with pre-pandemic projections. While almost all countries have introduced new social protection measures in response to the crisis, many were short-term in nature, and large numbers of vulnerable people have not yet benefited from them. As things stand, the world is not on track to end poverty by 2030, with poorer countries now needing unprecedented levels of pro-poor growth to achieve this goal.

First COVID-19, and now the Ukraine crisis, are derailing progress on ending extreme poverty

Between 2015 and 2018, global poverty continued its historical decline, with the extreme poverty rate falling from 10.1 per cent to 8.6 per cent. This means that the number of people living on less than $1.90 a day dropped from 740 million to 656 million over this period. COVID-19 has made a severe dent in that progress. Nowcasts suggest that the global poverty rate increased sharply from 2019 to 2020, from 8.3 per cent to 9.2 per cent, the first rise in extreme poverty since 1998 and the largest since 1990. This erased more than four years of steady gains. It also means that an additional 93 million people worldwide were pushed into extreme poverty because of the pandemic.

Little progress has been made since then in catching up to the pre-COVID trend. Forecasts for 2022 estimate that 75 million more people than expected prior to the pandemic will be living in extreme poverty. Rising food prices and the broader impacts of the war in Ukraine could push that number even higher, to 95 million, leaving the world even further from meeting the target of ending extreme poverty by 2030.

Number of people living on less than $1.90 a day, 2015–2018, 2019–2022 projection before and after COVID-19 (millions)

In 2020, the share of workers living in extreme poverty rose for the first time in two decades

In 2020, for the first time in two decades, the share of the world’s workers living in extreme poverty increased, rising from 6.7 per cent in 2019 to 7.2 per cent, pushing an additional 8 million workers into poverty. This reflects lost working hours and reduced incomes for many during the COVID-19 crisis. Although the working poverty rate declined slightly in 2021, to 6.9 per cent, it remains higher than before the pandemic. Most regions have not yet recovered to their 2019 levels. The two regions with the highest working poverty rates – sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) – have also experienced the largest increases in the past two years. The pandemic has likely exacerbated existing disparities in working poverty rates for youth and women, who were already more likely than adults and men to be among the working poor. Youth and women were disproportionately affected by working-hour losses and pay cuts in 2020, meaning these gaps are likely to widen.

Over half of the unemployed in high-income countries receive cash benefits compared with 1 per cent in low-income countries

Strong social protection systems are essential for mitigating the immediate and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and preventing people from falling into poverty. However, by 2020, only 46.9 per cent of the global population were effectively covered by at least one social protection cash benefit, leaving 4.1 billion people unprotected. In response to the COVID-19 crisis, almost 1,900 social protection measures were announced by 211 countries and territories, although these were mostly (92 per cent) short term in nature. Around 39 per cent of the measures introduced were directed towards vulnerable groups, while 26 per cent related to income security and unemployment protection, showing the high importance of social assistance and unemployment benefits in responding to the crisis. Still, only 96 countries have unemployment protection schemes in place and, even where such schemes exist, effective coverage is often limited, especially in countries with high levels of informal employment. Globally, in 2020, only 43.1 per cent of the labour force were legally covered by unemployment benefit schemes, and only 18.6 per cent of unemployed workers worldwide actually received unemployment benefits.

Similarly, only 28.9 per cent of people considered vulnerable – all children, along with older people and those of working age not covered by social insurance – had access to social assistance cash benefits in 2020, with coverage varying widely across regions. Sixty-three per cent of those considered vulnerable in high-income countries received cash benefits compared with just 7.8 per cent in low-income countries.

Disaster-related deaths rose sixfold in 2020, largely as a result of the pandemic

Biological hazards such as COVID-19, along with other disasters such as tropical cyclones and floods, can worsen poverty and slow hunger alleviation. In 2020, based on reporting from 80 countries under the Sendai Framework, the disaster-related mortality rate was 5.74 persons per 100,000 population. This estimation takes into account deaths resulting from disasters of all origins, including COVID-19. At least 80 per cent of disaster-related mortality that year was estimated to be due to the coronavirus. Even without considering significant underreporting (the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates global excess deaths of 4.5 million in 2020), this figure is already in stark contrast to the 2015-2019 period, when the disaster-related mortality rate averaged 0.93 persons per 100,000 population.

As countries were coping with the economic fallout of the pandemic, 33 countries reported $16.5 billion in direct economic losses in 2020, due to other disasters. Of this amount, 41 per cent ($6.8 billion) was in the agriculture sector and 38 per cent ($6.2 billion) related to losses resulting from damaged or destroyed critical infrastructure

Meanwhile, significant progress has been made towards increasing the number of countries adopting national disaster risk reduction strategies. By the end of 2021, 123 countries reported having such strategies in place, up from just 55 in 2015.

Database is available at https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/.

Thinking Beyond Crisis: Using the Pandemic to Advance High-quality, Timely and Inclusive Data

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended life as we know it. At the same time, it has forced new ways of thinking and opened up new opportunities. The global statistical community is exploring ways to seize these opportunities and learn from the pandemic. Its aim is to take that knowledge forward to provide better data for better lives – now and in what may be turbulent years ahead.

The impact of COVID-19 on national statistics offices (NSOs) around the world was dramatic. At the start of the pandemic, in-person data collection was abruptly halted in almost all countries. Meanwhile, data demand for policymaking and to inform the general public reached a new high. In seeking to understand the impact of the virus, for example, public health authorities needed timely and disaggregated death statistics. But monthly mortality data are still not available in a majority of countries. Moreover, many NSOs lack the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure to carry out their daily work remotely. Compounding these problems was the fact that domestic and external funding for statistical activities has been cut back in many countries, particularly those that need it most.

Despite the challenges, many NSOs found new ways to get the job done. One of them was using non-traditional data sources, such as mobile phone data, satellite imagery and citizen-generated data, along with new modes of data collection, such as web- or telephone-based or mix-mode interviews. The offices encouraged collaborative efforts and played a stronger coordination role within national data ecosystems. Such initiatives have provided the data needed to better understand the course and effects of the crisis on health, jobs, migration, violence against women and a range of other issues. Yet the level of responses among national statistical systems differed widely. Those that already had a solid and well-established data system have been better equipped to react creatively to the crisis.

Moreover, the path to success was not always straightforward. Innovations and new approaches, without careful attention to design and assessment, can inadvertently reinforce inequality and exclusion. In addition, NSOs needed to develop effective communication strategies to address the “pandemic” of misinformation and disinformation about COVID-19.

As the world slowly emerges from the crisis, timely, disaggregated and high-quality data are more important than ever. What are needed now are further investments in data and information infrastructure, drawing from lessons learned during the pandemic. The objective is to get ahead of the crisis so that we can trigger more timely responses, anticipate future needs, and design the urgent actions needed to realize the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The analysis that follows is based on four rounds of global surveys monitoring the effects of the pandemic on national statistical operations between May 2020 to May 2021, carried out jointly by the United Nations Statistics Division and the World Bank. It also draws on a survey on the implementation of the Cape Town Global Action Plan for Sustainable Development Data, carried out in August–September 2021.

Despite some progress, serious data gaps persist in SDG monitoring

Proportion of countries or areas with available data since 2015, by Goal (percentage)

Considerable progress has been made in the availability of internationally comparable data for SDG monitoring: the number of indicators included in the global SDG database increased from 115 in 2016 to 217 in 2022. However, significant data gaps still exist in terms of geographic coverage, timeliness and the level of disaggregation, making it difficult to fully comprehend the pace of progress towards the realization of the 2030 Agenda, differences across regions and who is being left behind

For 8 of the 17 SDGs, fewer than half of the 193 countries or areas have internationally comparable data from 2015 or later. While Goal 3 (health) and Goal 7 (energy) have the highest data availability (more than 80 per cent of countries have at least one data point since 2015), only around 20 per cent of countries have data for Goal 13 (climate action).

Also insufficient are disaggregated data for monitoring the progress of vulnerable population groups. Among the 32 SDG indicators with a requirement on sex disaggregation, only 21 have the latest disaggregated data available in most countries (more than 80 per cent of countries have at least one data point since 2015); for 8 indicators, no sex disaggregated data are available at all. Data are available for

only 7 out of 21 indicators that require disaggregation by both sex and age. When considering other disaggregation dimensions such as disability status, the picture is even murkier. Out of 10 SDG indicators that require disaggregation by disability status, data are available for only 2 of them.

COVID-19 made clear the need for a strong statistical foundation

Proportion of countries that stopped face-to-face data collection, May 2020–May 2021 (percentage)

COVID-19 posed a serious threat to the already struggling national statistical system and was a wake-up call to the need for a stronger statistical and ICT foundation. In May 2020, 96 per cent of countries put a full or partial stop to face-to-face data collection due to national lockdown measures. One year later, in May 2021, disruptions in face-to-face data collection were still occurring in 57 per cent of countries. Countries that only relied on in-person data collection before the pandemic were heavily affected, while countries with experience in remote data collection, or that had experimented with it, were at a considerable advantage. For example, in the United Kingdom, the immediate roll-out of a time-use survey during the pandemic benefited from earlier experimentation with remote data collection. The survey, carried out through the Internet, enabled policymakers to understand how the pandemic changed the way people spent their time.

One crack in the statistical foundation exposed during the pandemic was a lack of national mortality data for adults, which is needed to understand the true death toll of COVID-19. When a United Nations Technical Advisory Group was tasked with estimating national and global COVID-19-related excess mortality, they found that only 38 per cent of countries had the required monthly mortality data from January 2020 to December 2021. This lack of underlying data reflects a serious flaw in national vital statistics systems, which encompass death registration, household surveys and population censuses. Death registration in many countries is incomplete and delayed; data collection through censuses and surveys provides data with a time lag of only 5 to 10 years; and mortality data for older people are often not collected.

ICT infrastructure has been crucial during the pandemic in helping countries carry out data collection and training remotely as well as in storing data and fostering collaboration. In July 2020, only 62 per cent of all responding countries reported having sufficient ICT capabilities for remote training, and only 55 per cent had sufficient cloud computing services for remote data storage and data exchange. There is a divide between countries at different income levels. High-income countries were more equipped in terms of ICT, while low- and lower-middle-income countries were much less prepared.

The crisis is helping shape the future of innovation

Proportion of countries that reported the use of innovative approaches to measure the impact of COVID-19, May 2020 (percentage)

The COVID-19 crisis has been an extraordinary challenge for national statistical systems. It has also been an opportunity to experiment with innovative data collection methods, explore new data sources and modernize ICT infrastructures to meet the data demand for policymaking. Throughout that process, the importance of fully inclusive data was made evident. Moving forward, experiences during the pandemic can be used to inform the future of innovation in official statistics.

At the beginning of the crisis, more than 80 per cent of countries indicated they would be using phone surveys to collect data to measure the impact of COVID-19, and 37 per cent said they would be using web surveys – a significant increase from the pre-pandemic level. Administrative data, model-based estimates and non-traditional data sources – including phone call detail records, scanner data, social media, remote sensing and citizen-generated data – were all considered by countries.

In addition, many NSOs accelerated modernization of their ICT systems. In May 2021, 58 per cent of NSOs reported improvements in their overall ICT readiness over the previous six months. The main actions taken were deploying new collaboration software (85 per cent) and providing new equipment to staff (73 per cent). Another significant action for improving ICT readiness highlighted by NSOs was deploying new remote access tools such as VPN, Virtual Desktop and Mobile Office (61 per cent).

The pandemic was a reminder to leave no one behind

Proportion of countries having difficulty collecting data on specific population groups, by income group, May 2021 (percentage)

Collecting data on vulnerable population groups, such as migrants and persons with disabilities, is crucial in identifying the challenges they face and understanding who are being left behind. The use of innovative approaches, such as mobile phone surveys and artificial intelligence, should be accompanied by an assessment to ensure that innovations are not inadvertently excluding or harming the most vulnerable groups.

For example, the digital divide in mobile phone ownership and Internet access was cited as the main reason for not reaching certain population groups during the pandemic. Among countries surveyed, 39 per cent had difficulties adequately collecting data on migrants, 27 per cent had difficulties collecting data on older persons, and 27 per cent had difficulties with data on persons with disabilities. Moreover, traditional surveys that focus only on households leave out individuals living in institutions, such as nursing homes and other residential care facilities, homeless shelters and prisons, all of which have been heavily affected by the pandemic.

NSOs need to strengthen coordination within national data ecosystems

Proportion of national statistics offices that felt their capacity to coordinate within the larger data ecosystem could be improved, by income group, August–September 2021 (percentage)

During the pandemic, partnerships were formed among government agencies, academic institutions, local governments, private businesses and civil society organizations to collect urgently needed data for policymaking. Such collaboration fostered new ideas and resources; it also increased the resulting data’s inclusivity, timeliness and utilization. National statistics offices played a stronger coordination role in many countries. The Statistics Institute ofJamaica, for example, partnered with the Ministry of Health and other experts in leading a committee to match data demand with available data needed to guide policy during the crisis. To help fill data gaps on the SDGs, National Bureau of Statistics of Kenya initiated partnerships with civil society organizations and integrated a set of quality criteria for citizen-generated data in its newly released Kenya Statistical Quality Assurance Framework.

Despite all the effort, NSOs from many countries felt they coulddo better in coordinating work within the national data ecosystem. Globally, only 17 per cent of countries surveyed felt that their coordination within the data ecosystem was satisfactory. The satisfaction level varied by income level: it averaged 25 per cent in high-income countries but only 8 per cent in low- and lower-middleincome countries.

Effective communication strategies helped combat misinformation and disinformation

Proportion of national statistics offices that carried out activities to educate and reach data users in the past three years, by income group, August–September 2021 (percentage)

The pandemic placed unprecedented demands on NSOs around the world. In addition to setting the gold standard for data quality within a country, these offices were expected to take the lead in correcting the abundance of misinformation and disinformation circulating about the impact of COVID-19. To do so, NSOs needed to relay their findings to different data users through new and more traditional approaches to outreach. However, surveys indicated major gaps inthe approaches used depending on the income level of a country. The use of newer, more innovative approaches, such as social media, publication programmes targeted to specific user groups, seminars, eLearning platforms, live chat sessions and podcasts, was favoured by higher-income countries, while low- and lower-middle-income countries favoured more traditional approaches to user engagement. These included press conferences, traditional media appearances, general awareness campaigns, presentations, conferences and launch events. These findings signal an area for collective action by the statistical community. The opportunity is ripe to take advantage of modern communication channels and produce tailored support and data products to reach different user groups.

Increased investment in data and statistics is urgently needed

Proportion of national statistics offices that experienced a reduction in funding from the government and donors/other sources since the beginning of the pandemic, May 2021 (percentage)

During the pandemic, 40 per cent of NSOs saw data collection costs rise, while government funding for 48 per cent of NSOs was cut back. In sub-Saharan Africa, 61 per cent of countries saw these costs rise, while 71 per cent saw a drop in government funding and 59 per cent saw a drop in donor funding for NSOs. This trend was corroborated by an analysis of official development assistance for data and statistics, which showed that funding for many basic data activities were quickly deprioritized at the beginning of the pandemic. NSOs in two thirds of countries eligible for borrowing from the International Development Association (IDA) also experienced either moderate or severe delays in budget disbursement at the beginning of the 2021 fiscal year.

Over the next three years, NSOs in most IDA countries are expecting to face significant funding shortages for targeted programmes from development aid providers. Over two thirds (69 per cent) of surveyed countries identified business and agricultural censuses as the area that will face the most significant funding shortages, followed by population and housing censuses (56 per cent) and household surveys (52 per cent). In terms of policy sectors that will require additional support over this time period, health statistics was identified as a top priority by 76 per cent of IDA countries.

The last two years have dealt a major blow to the world’s economy and people, and lower-income countries were hit particularly hard. Investing in data capacities and data partnerships to leave no one behind, build trust and fill data gaps to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals must be a priority for national governments and the international community if countries are to rely upon evidence-based policy responses to emerge stronger from the crisis and face the unknown challenges ahead.

This reaffirms the urgency of implementing important frameworks including the Cape Town Global Action Plan for Sustainable Development Data, the Dubai Declaration and the Bern Data Compact for the Decade of Action on the Sustainable Development Goals, all agreed by the data community during the United Nations World Data Forums, to build statistical capacity and adopt an innovative demand-driven funding mechanism that can respond quickly and efficiently to the priorities of national statistical systems, with the goal of mobilizing both domestic and international funds.

Database is available at https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/.